Earlier this month, BailoutSleuth reported on eight TARP recipients that were in imminent risk of missing their sixth dividend payments - the crucial threshold that, once crossed, allows the Treasury Department to appoint two members to a bank's board of directors.

Only one bank, Saigon National Bank, had previously missed six dividend payments.

Now, one of those banks on BailoutSleuth's list appears  to have crossed that  threshold too: embattled OneUnited Bank, which is at the center of the controversy surrounding Rep. Maxine Water (D-Calif.), who is accused of using her political influence to help the bank secure money through the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

As a condition of receiving aid through TARP's Capital Purchase Program, banks were required to pay a 5 percent annual dividend, in quarterly installments, on the dollar amount of the cash they received. After five years, the rate increased to 9 percent.

The Boston Herald and the Boston Globe both reported that the bank was expected to miss its sixth dividend payment, which was due Monday. What that would mean is not entirely clear, as Treasury has not yet moved to appoint board members to Saigon.

With seven other banks hanging on the precipice of the six-missed-payment threshold, a pair of new academic studies from University of Louisiana-Lafayette professor Linus Wilson, who specializes in researching TARP, provide insight into what type of banks are most likely to become delinquent.

According to the latest report from the TARP Special Inspector General, 105 banks that got taxpayer money through the Capital Purchase Program have missed dividend payments, worth a collective $159.8 million.

One study that focused on privately held banks receiving TARP aid found that the banks most likely to skip dividend payments were those with elevated levels of charged-off assets and higher allowances for loan losses and  non-accrual and past-due loans.

Wilson also used data compiled by BailoutSleuth on enforcement action against bailout recipients. He determined that private banks under regulatory orders were more likely to miss dividends than those that were not.

He found that banks that missed dividend payments were likely to continue missing them, and those making payments were likely to continue doing so.

In a separate paper, Wilson, along with colleague Dobrine Georgieva of University of Saint Thomas, examined publicly traded banks that failed to make dividend payments. Those "dividend deadbeats" tended to be smaller than banks that made the payments, had weaker capital ratios, were less profitable and had lower market-to-book ratios. Other factors that helped predict whether a publicly traded bank would fail to make payments were high levels of non-performing asset ratios and lower tier-2 capital rations.

The study focusing on privately-held banks is available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1527270

The study on publicly traded banks is at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1654677